TVN Desk
The Biden administration is closely monitoring developments in Syria, where rebel forces have made stunning advances, raising the possibility that President Bashar al-Assad’s regime could fall within days, according to five U.S. officials. While no formal assessment has been issued, officials suggest the swift collapse of Assad’s government is increasingly plausible.
“The emerging consensus is that this is an increasingly plausible scenario,” one senior U.S. official remarked, while another suggested that Assad’s grip on power could disintegrate by the coming weekend. The official added that only an organized internal coup or significant reorganization could delay the rebels’ momentum, but the regime’s tight control over dissent has stifled such possibilities.
Rebels Advance Toward Damascus
Rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group previously linked to al-Qaeda and designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., are advancing rapidly toward Damascus. In just over a week, they have routed government forces in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama. The next major city in their path is Homs, as they press south toward the capital.
The Assad regime has been caught off guard by the speed of the offensive, with regime forces retreating or disbanding under pressure. This advance marks the most significant escalation in Syria’s civil war in years. Since its inception during the 2011 Arab Spring, the conflict has claimed over 300,000 civilian lives and displaced millions, according to the United Nations.
Assad’s Allies Distracted
Iran and Russia, Assad’s primary backers, appear unlikely to intervene decisively. Russia remains entangled in its war with Ukraine, while Iran faces setbacks from recent Israeli strikes on its air defenses and regional proxies. The rebels seem to have capitalized on these distractions and the global community’s reduced focus on Syria.
One U.S. official noted that HTS has likely received tacit approval from Turkey for its operations, though Ankara has not overtly supported the group. Meanwhile, the U.S. has maintained a partnership with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) for anti-ISIS operations but avoids direct communication with HTS due to its terrorist designation.
Chemical Weapons and Regional Stability
A major concern for U.S. officials is the security of Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile, which includes chlorine and sarin. Assad has used these weapons in the past, drawing international condemnation. The whereabouts of these stockpiles remain unclear, heightening fears of potential misuse.
Speculation surrounds Assad’s potential escape routes, with Moscow or Tehran likely to offer refuge. Additionally, questions remain about whether the rebels will target Latakia, a coastal enclave with significant Alawite support for Assad.
U.S. Response and Political Implications
The Biden administration, caught off guard by the rapid developments, has not yet adjusted its military posture in Syria, where approximately 900 U.S. troops are stationed for anti-ISIS operations. Additional force protection measures have been implemented as a precaution.
The situation also presents challenges for the U.S. government as President Joe Biden prepares to transition power to President-elect Donald Trump. Trump has already expressed opposition to U.S. involvement in Syria, advocating for a hands-off approach. On social media, he urged, “LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
However, concerns persist among lawmakers. Sen. Lindsey Graham has called for contingency plans to protect U.S. forces and ensure the anti-ISIS mission remains intact. He warned of potential risks if the Assad regime collapses further, emphasizing the need to secure ISIS prisoners detained in northeast Syria.
Historical Parallels
The U.S. intelligence community has previously miscalculated the resilience of foreign regimes, as seen in Afghanistan and Ukraine. In 2022, it launched a review of its methodologies for assessing the “will to fight” of foreign militaries. The situation in Syria underscores the importance of accurately gauging such factors in rapidly evolving conflicts.
The next few days will likely determine the fate of Assad’s regime, with profound implications for Syria, the region, and international stability.