A new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that Russia has significantly outpaced NATO in weapons production during the Ukraine war, raising concerns about the West’s ability to sustain military support for Kyiv. Despite NATO’s defense budget being ten times larger than Russia’s, inefficiencies in converting spending into firepower have become evident.
Russia’s Defense Surge
According to SIPRI’s annual report on the world’s top 100 defense companies, Russia’s leading defense firms saw a remarkable 40% growth in revenue last year, compared to 2.5% for U.S. companies and just 0.2% for European counterparts. This growth comes even as Russia’s top defense contractors, Rostec and United Shipbuilding Corporation, reported combined revenues of $25.5 billion, far below the $317 billion and $133 billion recorded by their U.S. and European rivals, respectively.
The report attributes Russia’s success to its ability to mobilize a war economy. “Russian military production is currently outpacing that of NATO nations combined,” noted Joseph Fitsanakis, a professor of intelligence and security studies. By directing 5.9% of its economy toward military spending, Russia has avoided a major recession while maintaining its defense output.
The Strain on NATO’s Defense Industry
Despite NATO’s staggering $1.34 trillion defense expenditure, structural inefficiencies hinder its response to wartime demands. SIPRI highlighted that European Union members allocate 78% of their procurement spending to non-EU countries, with 63% going to U.S. suppliers. This reliance limits the benefits to European contractors and delays the development of a robust, self-sufficient defense industry.
France, for example, experienced an 8.5% drop in defense revenue as European militaries opted for U.S.-made Lockheed Martin F-35 jets over French-built Rafales. Meanwhile, U.S. defense giants like Lockheed Martin and RTX (formerly Raytheon) faced supply chain bottlenecks that hindered their ability to fulfill rising demand.
Russia’s Tactical Focus
While NATO struggles, Russia has ramped up production of critical weapons systems, including missiles, aircraft, and drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently estimated Russia’s weekly usage of 600 drones and 200 missiles, underscoring the Kremlin’s production capacity.
However, this surge has come at a cost. Russian defense firms face interest rates exceeding 20% due to sanctions and economic pressures, prompting concerns about long-term sustainability. Fitsanakis predicts that many firms could face bankruptcy within two years, forcing state intervention.
Efforts to Reinforce NATO’s Defense Base
Recognizing its shortcomings, the EU has taken steps to bolster its defense industry. In June 2023, the EU launched the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), allocating €500 million to boost the production of artillery shells and explosives. Efforts to deepen European industrial capacity have also included the appointment of the EU’s first defense commissioner.
Still, these measures may not meet Ukraine’s immediate needs. Ukrainian forces fired an estimated three million artillery shells in 2023, and demand is expected to rise as they shift from defensive operations to reclaiming territory.
Ukraine’s Independent Strategy
Amid the uncertainty of Western supply chains, Ukraine is investing heavily in its own defense industry, with plans to triple spending by 2025. This initiative underscores Kyiv’s determination to maintain its fight against Russian aggression while NATO addresses its production challenges.
Conclusion
SIPRI’s findings highlight a critical disparity between NATO’s defense spending and its ability to produce arms in a crisis. While Russia faces significant economic challenges, its wartime production capacity has kept pace with battlefield demands. For the West, resolving supply chain issues and strengthening domestic production will be essential to maintaining support for Ukraine and countering Russian advances in the long term.