BENGALURU, Dec 2 – The rapid increase in satellites and space debris threatens to make low Earth orbit (LEO) unusable unless nations and private companies urgently collaborate on data sharing and space traffic management, experts and industry leaders have warned.
A United Nations panel on space traffic coordination concluded in late October that immediate action is necessary. It called for the creation of a comprehensive global database of orbital objects and an international framework for tracking and managing them.
Mounting Space Debris Crisis
Over 14,000 satellites currently orbit Earth in LEO, including approximately 3,500 inactive ones, according to US-based Slingshot Aerospace. Additionally, an estimated 120 million pieces of debris, ranging from rocket fragments to deteriorating satellite components, clutter this zone. Only a small fraction is large enough to track, creating significant risks of collisions.
“Space safety depends on facilitating information sharing between operators—public and private—to avoid collisions,” said Aarti Holla-Maini, co-chair of the UN panel and director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.
LEO has become increasingly congested due to its affordability and accessibility, with satellite deployments rising sharply. Slingshot data shows close approaches between objects in LEO increased by 17% per satellite over the past year, and thousands more satellites are expected to be launched in the coming years.
Risks and Costs
Recent incidents highlight the growing dangers. A Chinese rocket stage explosion in August and the detonation of a defunct Russian satellite in June scattered thousands of fragments, forcing astronauts on the International Space Station to take emergency shelter.
The financial cost of space collisions is projected at $746 million over five years, based on a model by Montreal-based NorthStar Earth and Space, which estimates a 3.13% annual collision probability and $111 million in yearly damages.
Challenges to Coordination
Efforts to establish a centralized system for space traffic management face significant hurdles. While some countries are open to sharing data, others hesitate due to security concerns, particularly as satellites often serve dual civilian and military purposes. Commercial operators are also reluctant to disclose proprietary data.
Expired satellites and debris from intentional destruction add to the problem. Russia faced global criticism in 2021 after testing an anti-satellite missile, creating thousands of debris fragments.
Urgency for Global Rules
Experts stress the need for enforceable global regulations akin to those used in air traffic management. Tools like telescopes, radars, and sensors could improve tracking precision and early collision detection, but geopolitical tensions and commercial secrecy remain barriers.
“The potential for conflicts in space is growing,” said Anirudh Sharma, CEO of Bengaluru-based Digantara, which specializes in space situational awareness. “We urgently need common global rules for coordination.”
The UN plans to present steps for addressing space traffic management at a 2025 meeting of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space.
“Speed and trust are the greatest challenges,” said Ms. Holla-Maini. “The UN can facilitate dialogue, but there’s no alternative to global cooperation. Time is our enemy, and action is critical.”