Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has survived a confidence vote in Japan’s parliament, despite his party losing its majority in a snap election triggered by a scandal. With this vote of confidence, Ishiba now holds a mandate to form a new government, though the challenges of governing a minority coalition remain.
On Monday, Japan’s parliament narrowly voted to keep Ishiba in power after his coalition, led by his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), lost its majority in the lower house elections held last month. Ishiba had called for the snap election immediately after assuming office on October 1, following the resignation of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, over a party funding scandal.
Runoff Vote Decides Ishiba’s Continued Leadership
The LDP, the dominant political force in Japan for much of the past seven decades, lost its parliamentary majority in the election. However, the party and its Komeito ally still secured the largest share of seats. This outcome led to a rare second-round runoff vote in parliament—the first of its kind in 30 years—after no candidate won an outright majority in the initial vote.
In the final vote, Ishiba secured 221 votes in the 465-seat chamber, enough to maintain his position as prime minister, as only a plurality was required to win.
Cabinet Shakeup and Ongoing Political Maneuvering
Ishiba reappointed many key members of his cabinet, including Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, Defense Minister Gen Nakatani, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. However, he was forced to replace three cabinet members who lost their seats or were otherwise affected by the election results.
Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the largest opposition faction, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), finished second in the vote with 160 votes, signaling a continued challenge to Ishiba’s leadership from the opposition.
Building New Alliances Amid Political Challenges
Despite the loss of his majority, Ishiba has refused to step down and has indicated that he will seek new coalition partners to stabilize his government. He has reached out to the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), a smaller conservative opposition party with 28 seats in the lower house. While the DPP has shown reluctance to join a formal coalition, it has signaled a willingness to support certain proposals from Ishiba’s minority government.
DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki, who had hoped to capitalize on political momentum, faced his own challenges on Monday when he admitted to the veracity of a magazine article exposing his extramarital affair.
Ishiba’s Domestic and Foreign Agenda
Ishiba’s immediate challenge is to secure approval for a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, which ends in March. He also faces the prospect of elections to Japan’s upper house, the House of Councillors, next year.
On the international front, Ishiba has a packed schedule, with an expected trip to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru this week, followed by the G20 summit in Brazil on November 18-19. Additionally, Ishiba hopes to arrange talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump during a potential stopover in the U.S. around the time of the G20 meeting.
While Ishiba retains power for now, his ability to govern will depend heavily on his ability to navigate Japan’s shifting political landscape and forge new alliances both at home and abroad.