Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the White House comes amid heightened tensions with North Korea, where leader Kim Jong Un has grown more assertive and formed closer alliances with Russia. Trump, who previously developed an unprecedented rapport with Kim, claims the North Korean leader “misses” him, suggesting that relations with North Korea could stabilize under his leadership. However, experts say Trump may now face a much-changed geopolitical landscape and a more dangerous Kim Jong Un.
During Trump’s previous term, he broke tradition with his bold approach to North Korea, initially threatening Kim with “fire and fury” but later holding a series of high-profile summits. The two leaders met in Singapore, Hanoi, and the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea, with Trump declaring he and Kim had “fallen in love.” While these meetings fostered unprecedented optics, they ultimately failed to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions or ease tensions long-term.
Since then, Kim has strengthened North Korea’s position, forging a defense pact with Russia and becoming an ally in its conflict with Ukraine. North Korea is believed to have supplied Russia with military aid, drawing concern from U.S. allies who see this as an escalation. Moreover, North Korea’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test signaled a renewed threat, with the missile’s range capable of reaching the United States.
Kim’s Shifting Stance and a Stronger Arsenal
In recent years, Kim has taken a harsher stance against the U.S. and South Korea, referring to South Korea as a “permanent enemy” and calling for accelerated military preparations. He has also vowed to increase North Korea’s nuclear arsenal “exponentially.” The Stimson Center’s Rachel Minyoung Lee describes Kim’s skepticism toward the U.S. as a significant shift, saying, “The circumstances in which we must deal with North Korea have changed fundamentally.”
With Russia’s support and a growing anti-West coalition that includes China and Iran, Kim’s ambitions have expanded. He is reportedly focused on gaining recognition as a nuclear state and seeking sanctions relief for economic growth, goals he may see Trump as uniquely positioned to negotiate.
Potential for a New Approach
Trump has indicated he would reengage with Kim if he returns to office, but whether Kim would be open to talks remains unclear. In September, Trump’s former national security advisor Robert O’Brien suggested Trump could resume negotiations but added that it would be a “hard position” for the U.S. to ask for less than full denuclearization.
Analysts express concern that Trump may pursue a quick deal, potentially weakening the U.S. stance on denuclearization. “Trump’s reelection is likely to encourage Kim…to use his alliance with Russia as leverage in talks,” says Eul-Chul Lim, director of the North Korea Research Center at Kyungnam University. Yet some experts worry that a new Trump administration might accept North Korea’s nuclear advances rather than firmly oppose them.
Geopolitical Shifts Pose New Challenges
The current geopolitical climate poses additional challenges for Trump. With Russia, China, and North Korea forming a bloc of opposition to the West, any U.S.-North Korea negotiations would face a more divided global stage. The Biden administration has strengthened alliances with Japan and South Korea, where conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol has emerged as a key partner against North Korea’s provocations. This South Korean administration is unlikely to support Trump’s direct engagement with Kim unless it aligns with clear denuclearization goals.
As Oxford University’s Edward Howell puts it, “Even if leader-to-leader dialogue may catalyze some very short-term reduction in tensions – it is difficult to believe that Pyongyang will make any significant concessions on the ‘treasured sword’ of its nuclear program.” With these hardened alliances and an emboldened North Korean leader, Trump may face a very different scenario in dealing with Kim Jong Un than during his first term.