Put in the simplest terms: the national election of a President is a series of state-by-state contests. The result is a handful of states have an outsized say in picking the team in the White House, and they often can be grouped into clusters like the so-called Blue Wall or Sun Belt.
At the moment, strategists in both parties identify seven commonly-agreed-upon battleground states.
The race between the Republican and Democratic candidates in these states is so intense that the results can go either way. Opinion polls also show a very small gap between the two candidates in these states, usually within the ‘margin of error’.
Analysts say, these 7 states are ‘swing states’ or ‘battleground states’ which are considered as important battlegrounds. That is, the election results of states are difficult to predict and last-minute voter decisions will actually play a big role. Let’s take a look at the current situation, local issues and voter attitudes in each of these 7 states.
The more than 90 electoral votes across these seven swing states are expected to be pivotal in the White House race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
1.Arizona
Electoral Votes: 11
The Grand Canyon State swinging from a Trump victory in 2016 to a narrow Biden win in 2020 bucked a decades-long trend, as a Republican candidate had won the state in every other presidential election this century.
Arizona’s battleground status is a testament to its changing demographics, and immigration – always a polarizing issue, but especially so in 2024 – is a major talking point in the border state this year.
2.Georgia
Electoral Votes: 16
Georgia is another example of how the group of swing states can vary.
Biden’s major victory there in 2020 marked the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the Peach State since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Black voter turnout and enthusiasm in 2020 played an important role in Biden’s win, and the voting bloc again could prove pivotal in November.
3.Michigan
Electoral Votes: 15
The Great Lakes State has almost always gone Democratic in recent decades, but is also no stranger to being a battleground.
It’s one of three states – along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that formed a “blue wall” for Biden in 2020, but Trump won each state over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Recent survey data indicates that the economy is of utmost importance to Michigan voters, and the state’s working class is a key group for both candidates to win over.
4.Nevada
Electoral Votes: 6
The fact that Nevada has the lowest number of electoral votes among the seven swing states shouldn’t minimize its importance in the presidential election.
Biden’s 2020 win marked the fourth consecutive victory by Democratic candidates in the Silver State, but the margin was relatively small that year and in 2016, when Clinton won it.
Though it’s fairly close to the southern border and around 30% of its relatively diverse population is Hispanic, polling indicates the economy tops immigration as a key election issue in the state.
5.North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 16
The Tar Heel State may “lean Republican,” according to a U.S. News analysis, but it’s still a definite swing state. Trump won North Carolina by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020.
Before he exited the race, Biden made the state the last stop on a post-State of the Union tour of swing states, and Democrats hope North Carolina will prove to be the Georgia of 2024.
The state also could be a crucial pickup for Harris should other battlegrounds side with Trump.
6.Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 19
The Keystone State clinched the “blue wall” – and the presidency – for Biden, its native son, in 2020.
Trump’s win there in 2016, however, snapped a streak of Democratic candidates carrying the state, and Biden only won by 1.2 percentage points four years ago.
Its 19 electoral votes amount to the fifth-most overall and the highest number among swing
7.Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
Alphabetically the last of the “blue wall” states, Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state until Trump eked out a victory there in 2016 and cemented its status as a battleground.
Biden then flipped the script with his own narrow Badger State victory over the former president in 2020.
Both of the main candidates have spent ample time there in 2024 – Milwaukee hosted the Republican National Convention, for example – demonstrating the value of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.
NS/SR