Brics Summit in Kazan Highlights Stalled Expansion and Internal Tensions Amid Growing Interest from New Applicants.
The recent Brics summit held in Kazan, Russia, was marked more by the events surrounding the meeting than by the discussions within it. One significant development that did not occur was another round of expansion for the organization.
Since the inclusion of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates at the 2023 summit in Johannesburg—almost doubling the original five members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)—further growth has stagnated. Notably, Argentina, also invited in 2023, chose not to join, and Saudi Arabia has yet to respond to its invitation. The absence of Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman was particularly notable in Kazan.
Additionally, Kazakhstan, Russia’s largest neighbor in Central Asia, opted out of joining shortly before the summit, prompting Russia to retaliate with a ban on imports of various agricultural products from Kazakhstan.
While some potential members have declined invitations, interest in joining Brics has surged, with 34 countries expressing a desire for closer relations, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This marks a significant increase from the 23 applicants listed by South Africa’s foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, prior to the 2023 summit.
However, despite this growing interest, only six invitations have been extended since then, with just four accepted. This underscores a current inability among existing members to reach a consensus on future expansions and the hesitance of some invitees to align themselves with the organization.
“Meetings on the Margins: A Turning Point for Brics as Modi and Xi Reconnect”
While the summit declaration may lack substantial content, several bilateral meetings held before and during the gathering reveal the evolving dynamics within Brics. Notably, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping engaged in their first face-to-face conversation in five years, marking a significant shift in relations.
This development is particularly striking given the heightened tensions between New Delhi and Beijing just months prior, which led Modi to forgo attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. However, with a recent agreement on their longstanding border dispute, these two populous and economically influential members now have a chance to mend their historically strained relationship.
A thaw in relations between China and India could catalyze Brics to advance its ambitious agenda for establishing a new global order. This shift may signal a transition in leadership within the group from China and Russia to a partnership between China and India, potentially steering the bloc away from an anti-Western stance toward a more inclusive, non-Western agenda.
“Putin’s Concerns at the Brics Summit: Balancing Influence Amidst Diverging Agendas”
Putin’s apprehensions regarding the shifting dynamics within Brics were evident during the summit, where he highlighted the significance of the global south and global east in his opening remarks. He stressed the need to maintain balance and ensure the effectiveness of Brics mechanisms remains intact.
Throughout the summit, Putin engaged in several bilateral meetings with leaders such as Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. These discussions allowed him to assert that, despite Western efforts, Russia remains far from isolated on the international stage and to advocate for his vision of Brics as a counterbalance to the US-led West.
While this perspective resonates with nations in the global east—like Russia, China, and Iran, as well as non-Brics countries such as North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela—India and Brazil within the global south appear more cautious. They are likely to prioritize maximizing the benefits of their Brics membership while maintaining strong ties with Western nations, signaling a reluctance to fully embrace Putin’s agenda.
“Lacking a Coherent Agenda: India’s Balancing Act and Turkey’s Unique Position”
India stands out as the most influential member of Brics in terms of navigating the delicate balance between the East and the West. Similarly, Turkey plays a unique role on the periphery of this dynamic. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Kazan exemplified this, as he engaged in an hour-long meeting with his “dear friend” Putin without hesitation.
The relationship between Moscow and Ankara is fraught with complexity, shaped by a myriad of crises spanning the South Caucasus, Syria, Libya, and Sudan. Despite these tensions, Turkey has maintained open lines of communication with Russia, particularly regarding the contentious issue of Russian aggression towards Ukraine. As the only NATO member with the capacity to do so, Turkey’s position underscores its unique role in the geopolitical landscape, allowing it to act as a bridge between competing interests while highlighting the lack of a cohesive agenda within Brics.
“Limited Pressure on Erdoğan Reflects Western Hedging Strategy: The Complex Roles of Turkey and India in Brics”
The relatively low level of public pressure from Western officials on Erdoğan to curtail communication with Russia suggests that these channels are still deemed valuable by the West. This, coupled with NATO’s ongoing collaboration with India, indicates a hedging strategy being employed by Western nations. India actively engages with the U.S., Australia, and Japan within the Quad alliance, focusing on security in the Indo-Pacific, while also maintaining political dialogue with NATO since 2019.
While Turkey and India may not align with the West on every issue, they also find themselves at odds with the global east faction within Brics, particularly regarding their relationship with Russia. This divergence in perspectives hampers Brics’ ability to develop a cohesive agenda, deepen integration, and ultimately present a credible challenge to the existing global order. As a result, the bloc’s potential influence may be limited by the very complexities and contradictions among its members.
“Relying on India and Turkey: A Short-Term Strategy for the West Amidst Brics Aspirations”
While relying on India and Turkey to undermine Brics may seem appealing, it is not a sustainable long-term strategy. Despite the limited achievements of Brics as an organization, the summit declaration from Kazan reveals that its key players still hold ambitions for greater influence and effectiveness.
However, the ongoing struggles with expansion and the internal conflicts regarding the future direction of Brics highlight significant challenges within the bloc. These internal divisions provide the West with an opportunity to exert a more positive and constructive influence in the evolving landscape of international relations.
Although the global east may appear entrenched in its positions, there remains a substantial opportunity for the West to reengage with the global south. By fostering collaboration and dialogue, the West can work towards a more balanced global order that acknowledges the aspirations of emerging nations while navigating the complexities of existing geopolitical tensions.