Shamima Choudhury
The head of Bangladesh Interim government Dr. Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate, in order to stay in power for life, adopted three strategies. First one, he created a political party NCP, national citizens party and its main demand is to (1) postpone election until all reforms are completed and secondly, (2) until all fraudulent cases against the leaders of the past government, the Awami League is completed in its Kangaroo courts. They also demand banning and extinction of the Awami League (AL) party, the largest political party of the country that led the nation to achieve its independence in 1971 and also was instrumental in establishing its native language, Bangla as a state language. Most importantly, it also helped upgrading Bangladesh into a ‘developing country’, a ‘land of opportunity’ from a Least Developed country (LDC) and a land of poverty and hunger, cyclones and hopelessness. It is a fact that Bangladesh achieved its independence due to sacrifice and leadership of its Father of the Nation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman who solidified the unity of the Bengali nationhood and inspired the nation to sacrifice 3 million lives to achieve its independence.
Second, Dr. Yunus created his powerful media wing and his bloggers to aggressively argue for postponing the election until 2029 or until his death.
The 3rd strategy which is most dangerous is the starting of a proxy war in the Bangladesh-Myanmar belt by allowing the Western powers to have free troops mobility in the proposed “Corridor consisting of CHT and Cox’s Bazar area and the Rakhaine state of Myanmar”, setting up of a
Command and Control Communication Center in St. Martin island, and enforcing the UN resolution similar to that of resolution 1973 of 2011 on Libya of imposing “No fly zone” in the corridor in the pretext of R2P, respond to protect lives in which Bangladesh is a signatory. Such proxy war will destroy all hopes and aspirations of Bangladeshis to be a prosperous country by 2041.
Sheikh Hasina set up a Roadmap for a hunger-free Bangladesh by 2030 and a prosperous Bangladesh by 2041
Bangladesh, most densely populated country in the world with a population of 170+ million in a landmass as big as that of Wisconsin state of USA that has only 5.6 million population achieved its rapid economic growth and stability due to the astute leadership of Sheikh Hasina, the Bangabandhu’s daughter who ruled the country for 21 years. During her administration, it could achieve the status of a ‘Developing country’ from an LDC, its GDP increased from $90 billion to $478 billion, its per capital income and its exports increased by 5 and 6 folds, it could reduce poverty more than half from 42% to 18% and the extreme poverty from 25% to 5.6%, a remarkable achievement. It’s birth rate reduced from 2.98 to 1.31 without any mandatory program unlike China or India and its school enrollment reached from 65% to almost 100%. It’s life expectancy increased from 63 years to over 74 years. More importantly, women workforce increased from a mere 5.6% to over 38% and now women were employed in jobs like police, army, air and naval forces, that were simply unthinkable in the past.
Sheikh Hasina raised the status of women and she employed many accomplished women as Vice Chancelors, as Government Permanent Secretaries, as Judges, as Senior police officers and even as Military General —- basically in jobs that were always meant for men. Women empowerment and involvement in the development discourse is a key to her success.
For the first time, she introduced ‘social protection programs’ for the elderly, the disabled, the poor, the widowers, the unemployed, and also allotted houses for the homeless, which was unthinkable in an LDC like Bangladesh. She achieved over 6.6% GDP growth rate during her tenure, a sharp increased from an average of 3.2% during the military, civil-military-cum- technocratic governments of 1975-90.
Sheikh Hasina set up a roadmap to make Bangladesh a hunger-free country by 2030 and a developed country by 2041 by introducing modern technology like digital technology. She envisioned to reduce corruption and harassment of public through the introduction of digital technology in every jobs and services. She hoped to have “Smart Bangladesh”, a technologically skilled smart people to have smart productivity, smart operations, smart services, etc. No wonder the UN Secretary General termed Bangladesh “a model of economic development”, the Wall Street Journal termed it “a standard bearer of the South“, the Boston Consulting Group predicted it to be the 9th largest market in the world and its economy was aspiring to be the 23rd largest in the world by 2041 from its current 33rd largest status.
August Uprising: Hopes and aspirations gone
But since a meticulous designed student-led and military backed uprising on 5 August, 2024 to end “quota restriction in government jobs”, all these hopes and aspirations have wiped out. Now the country is in a total chaos and uncertainty. Thousands have been laid off, hundreds of factories have been closed down, 26.6 million added to unemployment roster, poverty has sharply increased, inflation is sky rocketed and most of the development programs and activities are either frozen or abandoned. No wonder, during the last quarters, the ADP achieved 18% only and now GDP growth rate is downgraded to 3.8% from 7.2% due to ill governance, total lawlessness and anarchy. The Jehadis and terrorists are under the tacit protection of the interim government currently engaged in looting and vandalizing private properties. As a result, fear and uncertainty became pervasive and wild all across the country. Out of fear of false cases and detention and also due to its Draconian “Operation Devil Hunt” program that is designed to arrest, extort money and humiliate AL supporters, thousands have crossed the borders to India and other countries and currently passing lives of misery.
Prospect of Vibrant Private Sector development in Bangladesh is gone
During the past government, it followed the Japanese and the South Korean model of encouraging private “business conglomerates” like Mitsubishi, Toyota, Panasonic, of Japan or Samsung, Hyundai, Kia of South Korea. In the process, they developed conglomerates like BEXIMCO, Pran, Bashundora, Summit, Walton, Meghna, BRAC, Bengal, Ha-Meem, Akij, Monem, etc groups. These conglomerates aimed at making profits, diversify their capital investment in many sectors and they created jobs and goods. And they became successful business houses.
But now the new government of Dr. Yunus came up with a new philosophy of business and it is known as “social business”. It aims like that of Karl Marx who argued that the businessmen be engaged not to make profits but to serve the welfare of the people. You would be gratified by serving the poor, not making money. No wonder, many Bangladeshi business houses are shifting their business ventures abroad away from Bangladesh.
Yunus second strategy: Aggressive media propaganda
His Press Secretary, his strong media wing and his powerful bloggers have started a massive campaign to allow Dr. Yunus to continue as the Chief Advisor until his death and they argue to forget about any election in foreseeable future. They have started a crusade of disinformation and have been trying to undermine all political parties, their leaderships and institutions.
Third strategy: a Proxy War in the region
If past record is any guide, Dr. Muhammad Yunus never likes to give up his job. He fought tooth and nail and even involved the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton to keep him as MD of the Grameen Bank by violating all government and bank regulations. Now in order to create uncertainty in the country, Dr. Yunus, proposed the following. First, it is reported that he allowed the US government to set up a Command and Control Communication Center in St. Martin island of Bangladesh. This center will monitor all traffic in the Indian Ocean and also troops mobility in the Rakhaine state and Myanmar.
The Americans are interested to contain the rise of China and to block its access to the Indian ocean and from its multi-billion dollar investment for energy supply from Myanmar. Secondly, he proposed “a safe corridor in the Chittagong Hill Tract and Cox’s Bazar (CXB) area to the Western powers for free mobility of troops and weapons into the Rakhaine state of Myanmar. He would be engaging the Bangladesh military and also the revolutionary Arakan army to takeover the Rakhaine state and to create an independent and sovereign state in the region. In the process, Bangladesh might lose its CTH and CXB area plus maybe Chittagong district too.
Proxy War in Asia: Dangerous for the region
Neither China nor India may take Dr. Yunus’s proposal lightly. In fact, both China and Russian Federation want the US and its allies to stay away from intervention in the Rakhaine state of Myanmar. Therefore, a proxy war is likely to start in the Asian region. The Americans and its Allies will supply weapons and the soldiers of Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, etc will fight on the ground and many mothers will loose their sons and daughters and thousands of children will loose their parents. Once a proxy war starts in the Asian region, all countries in the region both rich and poor will suffer.
Lessons from Proxy Wars in Middle East and Europe
Due to prolong proxy war in the Middle East, all Arab countries in spite of having rich wealth like oil and gas reserves have been finding uncertainty and constant threats. Many cities and towns in the Middle East have been grounded and thousands of lives are being lost in the Middle East due to never ending proxy war between Israel and its neighbors. The world witnessed as a “helpless onlookers” the worst of human rights violations, dignity of humanity and destruction due to such proxy wars and conflicts in the Middle East.
Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukraine proxy war, the flourishing economies of Europe are facing hardships and threats of uncertainty. Therefore, if history is any lesson, while Bangladesh and Myanmar will suffer badly and their hopes and aspirations for a better life in future will surely be affected negatively, the emerging countries in the region will also suffer. For Bangladeshis, forget the dream of poverty-free, hunger-free country by 2030 and a developed country by 2041. Emerging countries of the region like India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, South Korea, and of course, China and India will also suffer for such a proxy war in Asia. If a proxy war starts in the region, then forget the dream that the rising Asia would dominate the global economy in the next century. Therefore, all countries in Asia must prevent Dr. Yunus and his National Security Advisor Dr. Khalilur Rahman from initiating a proxy war in Asia. Once the war starts, since they have their families in the USA, they can have a comfortable life in their adopted country but the people in the region will suffer for years.
Dr. Yunus’s selfish motive leading to proxy war in Asia
President Zelenesky of Ukraine could postpone his elections due to Russian-Ukraine war. Although currently Dr. Yunus is delaying holding of a free and fair election in Bangladesh under various pretexts of reforms, once the proxy war is started, he would get a legitimate reason to abandon holding of any election in foreseeable future in Bangladesh. Already the US government that was always very vocal for a free, fair, transparent, inclusive and all participatory election in Bangladesh is now quiet on this issue although 250 days of Yunus government have passed. Both the US and the Western governments are now becoming less vocal to the cry of gross human rights violations, kangaroo courts, and bulldozer politics of Dr. Muhammad Yunus in Bangladesh. Already the US State department stated that the Bangladeshis have to take care of their issues and therefore, if the nation does not rise to defeat such nefarious move of Dr. Yunus now, sadly the nation and the region is sure to suffer for years.