WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump hailed his new reciprocal tariffs as a turning point for the U.S. economy, but experts warn the move could lead to higher prices, economic turbulence, and potential political fallout ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
The sweeping tariff package, announced Wednesday, targets imports from China, the European Union, and other major trading partners, with rates ranging from 34% on Chinese goods (on top of an existing 20%) to 20% on European imports. Trump insists the move will revitalize U.S. manufacturing, reduce the national debt, and lower taxes—but economists and even some Republicans remain skeptical.
Economic and Political Risks
Economists argue that while tariffs aim to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., supply chains take years to adjust, and in the short term, consumers will bear the brunt of higher costs. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 70% of Americans, including 62% of Republicans, expect tariffs to raise prices on groceries and other goods.
“He (Trump) has a high tolerance for pain, but it could turn into real pain at the ballot box (in) November 2026,” said Mike Dubke, former communications director for Trump’s first administration.
With Republicans holding narrow majorities in both the House and Senate, a voter backlash over rising prices could hand control of one or both chambers to Democrats.
Economic concerns are growing as well. Stock markets reacted negatively to the tariff announcement, with U.S. stock futures tumbling. A prolonged downturn could impact retirement savings and consumer confidence.
“The principal risk is around the economy,” said Lanhee Chen, a Hoover Institution fellow and former adviser to Republican leaders Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio. “One is an immediate risk on prices, and another is the potential for the economy to enter a recessionary phase.”
Rising GOP Unease
Some Republican officials are already signaling discomfort.
On Tuesday, Republican candidates in Florida barely held onto two traditionally safe districts, while in Wisconsin, a key swing state, a liberal candidate won a Supreme Court seat in a rebuke of Trump and his ally Elon Musk.
In the Senate, four Republicans broke ranks to vote with Democrats on a measure to repeal Trump’s tariffs on Canada—though the bill is unlikely to pass the House.
“Liberation Day appears to be about liberating American businesses and consumers from their money,” said a former Republican congressional aide.
White House Dismisses Concerns
Despite warnings from economists and political analysts, the White House insists Trump’s trade policy will strengthen the economy.
“President Trump’s first and only concern is the welfare of the American people,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai. “His historic trade action reflects his commitment to restoring American greatness for our industries and workers.”
Trump has also blamed inflation on his predecessor, Joe Biden, arguing that his administration is doing everything possible to lower costs.
However, Democrats are expected to hammer Republicans over the potential fallout from the tariffs, especially if they contribute to an economic downturn.
Mixed Business Reactions
Among small business owners, reactions to the tariffs were divided.
In Baltimore, Drew Greenblatt, owner of Marlin Steel, welcomed the policy, saying it had already boosted orders as customers pivoted to American-made products.
But in Washington, D.C., Michelle Lim Warner, owner of the DCanter wine boutique, was less optimistic.
“Who is going to pay $75 for what was a $25 bottle of wine?” she asked, noting that two-thirds of her inventory comes from Europe.
Looking Ahead
While Trump is betting that his tariffs will win over voters by boosting domestic production, early signs suggest a growing unease—even within his own party.
Political scientist Barbara Trish noted that while Trump has repeatedly weathered controversies, economic anxiety may prove harder to shake.
“How many times have observers legitimately thought, ‘OK, this is the last straw,’ and yet he keeps going?” she said.
With 18 months until the midterms, Trump’s economic gamble could prove decisive for both his presidency and the balance of power in Congress.