The recent earthquake in Myanmar could open new diplomatic avenues for the country’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing. The 7.7-magnitude earthquake has claimed nearly 2,900 lives, making it the deadliest natural disaster in the country’s history. This disaster has created opportunities for diplomatic engagements that had been largely stalled since the 2021 coup, according to British news agency Reuters.
Even before the earthquake, Min Aung Hlaing was preparing to attend the BIMSTEC summit in Thailand. Thai officials have confirmed that he will participate in the summit in Bangkok on Friday.
This visit could serve as an opportunity for the junta leader to gain international recognition. Experts believe that countries like India, China, and Russia could leverage the crisis to expand their influence in Myanmar.
Analyst Anshuman Choudhury stated that regional powers would likely take advantage of the crisis to strengthen their influence. At the same time, the junta administration may use this opportunity to demonstrate its indispensability.
Since the earthquake, Min Aung Hlaing has held discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. These discussions have facilitated the flow of international aid into Myanmar.
The junta was already under increasing pressure due to military failures against opposition forces. However, the post-earthquake situation has presented new diplomatic opportunities. Following his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Min Aung Hlaing appears more confident.
Critics argue that the junta is exploiting the disaster for its own interests while hesitating to provide aid to opposition groups and ordinary citizens. Despite receiving international assistance, the junta continues its military operations.
Regional analyst Sihasak Phuangketkeow commented that the junta believes it can survive with the support of China, Russia, and India.
The BIMSTEC summit could serve as another opportunity for Min Aung Hlaing to secure international recognition. India has already sent aid to Myanmar, strengthening diplomatic ties with the junta.
There is speculation that Min Aung Hlaing may meet with Narendra Modi during the summit in Bangkok. Analyst Choudhury noted that Modi has already expressed a willingness for direct engagement with the junta leader. Additionally, discussions are underway about a possible meeting between Min Aung Hlaing and Thailand’s former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Some analysts believe Thailand is trying to maintain a balanced approach, given its long border with Myanmar and internal security concerns. Political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak said Myanmar is currently experiencing a severe civil war, and Thailand must act cautiously in response.