When the hostility between Russia and the United States ceases, the Middle East might face a new reality. Some experts describe this shift as the end of the post-war world order, while others see it as a major realignment. The key question is: What could happen if the US no longer views Russia as an enemy but as a partner or at least a neutral power?
US diplomats and analysts are still trying to grasp the full implications of this potential shift. When an American diplomat learned that Israel was trying to convince the Trump administration to allow Russia to maintain its military bases in Syria, he warned that this would go against US national interests. However, when asked what would happen if Trump disagreed, the diplomat remained silent.
Recently, Trump expressed his desire to explore “incredible opportunities” with Russia. He mentioned that dealing with Russia might be easier than with Ukraine, despite the US’s long-standing support for Ukraine through arms and intelligence sharing.
Trump, Nixon, and the China Example
Since World War II, the US has consistently treated Russia as a rival in the Middle East. However, the Trump administration aimed to change this perspective. Some analysts believe Trump was following the example of Nixon and Kissinger’s China policy, where they normalized relations with China to pressure the Soviet Union.
However, former US diplomat Chas Freeman argues that this is a flawed comparison. He likens Trump’s openness to Putin not to Nixon’s China policy but to Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s historic visit to Jerusalem.
Russia-Israel Cooperation in Syria and Turkey’s Discomfort
Some Trump advisors viewed Turkey as a major threat. Former advisor Steve Bannon even described Turkish President Erdoğan as one of the world’s most dangerous leaders, accusing him of seeking to revive the Ottoman Empire.
Former US ambassador Robert Ford suggested that Trump wanted to withdraw US troops from Syria, potentially allowing Russia and Israel to work together to limit Turkey’s influence.
Can Russia Mediate a US-Iran Deal?
Trump aimed to negotiate a new deal regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Moscow had already proposed to mediate in these talks. However, experts believed Russia’s role might be limited this time, as Trump could prefer direct negotiations, much like the Obama administration did.
Economic Competition in the Gulf
If the Ukraine war ends and Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, it could significantly impact the Gulf economies. The UAE, which had served as an intermediary for Russia due to sanctions, might see its role diminish if Russia could trade directly with the US. Additionally, Russia might try to sell arms to Gulf countries.
Trump’s $1 Trillion Deal with Saudi Arabia
Trump announced plans to visit Saudi Arabia, stating that Riyadh had agreed to invest $1 trillion in the US over the next four years. He emphasized that this agreement was the reason for his visit, possibly within the next six weeks.
An Uncertain Future
Diplomatic analyst Chas Freeman warned that the global order is being reshaped, comparing it to a kaleidoscope where a slight shift can create a completely new pattern. Even if direct cooperation between the US and Russia in the Middle East does not materialize, the US might remain silent on many issues, allowing Russia to gain influence.