Washington, D.C. (February 13, 2025) – U.S. intelligence has issued a warning that Israel is likely to launch a preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear program by midyear, according to a report by the Washington Post on Wednesday. The report, citing multiple intelligence sources, suggests that such an attack could set back Iran’s nuclear program by weeks or months, while escalating tensions in the region and risking a wider conflict.
Key Intelligence Findings
The intelligence reports, which span the end of the Biden administration and the start of the Trump administration, indicate that Israel is likely to target Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities. The most comprehensive of these reports, produced by the intelligence directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency in early January, warned of the potential for an Israeli strike.
Official Responses
The White House, Israeli government, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, and Office of the Director of National Intelligence all declined to comment on the report. However, Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, stated that President Donald Trump “will not permit Iran to get a nuclear weapon.” Hughes emphasized that while Trump prefers negotiating a peaceful resolution, he will not wait indefinitely if Iran is unwilling to engage in talks.
Background and Context
The intelligence reports highlight that Israel’s bombing of Iran in October degraded Iran’s air defenses, leaving the country exposed to a follow-on assault. Current and former U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence noted that Israel has determined its previous actions have created an opportunity for a more decisive strike.
Diplomatic Efforts and Regional Tensions
Iran and Israel have engaged in tit-for-tat strikes over the past year amid broader tensions, including Israel’s war in Gaza. The intelligence reports envision two potential strike options, both involving U.S. support with aerial refueling and intelligence.
President Trump, in a recent interview with Fox News, expressed his preference for negotiating a deal with Iran to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He stated, “Everyone thinks Israel, with our help or our approval, will go in and bomb the hell out of them. I would prefer that not happen.”
Historical Context
The United States, under President Barack Obama, and European allies negotiated an agreement with Iran to halt its nuclear program. However, Trump, encouraged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, withdrew the U.S. from the accord and reimposed sanctions on Tehran in 2018. Since then, Iran has restarted its nuclear program and is enriching uranium, according to the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency.
Ongoing Diplomatic Efforts
Iran, Britain, France, and Germany have met in Geneva to explore ways to resume nuclear talks, according to Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely as tensions remain high.