In a grave escalation of conflict in southern Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry reported that 15 individuals were killed and over 80 were wounded by Israeli forces. The violence occurred after the Israeli military did not withdraw by the agreed deadline, despite a ceasefire agreement intended to conclude 14 months of hostilities.
Early on Sunday, thousands of Lebanese residents, ignoring warnings from their own and the Israeli armies as well as the UN, returned to their homes in border towns and villages, only to find the region still marred by conflict. The Lebanese health ministry disclosed that these civilians were attacked as they attempted to enter areas still under Israeli occupation. Additionally, the Lebanese army reported casualties among its ranks, with one soldier killed and another wounded by Israeli fire.
The Israeli military has stated that it fired “warning shots” in multiple areas across southern Lebanon to prevent movements deemed threatening, though it did not confirm whether these actions resulted in the reported casualties. The military also detained several individuals, claiming they posed an “imminent threat.”
The ceasefire agreement, brokered by the US and France, required the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the disarmament and removal of Hezbollah forces from the southern regions of Lebanon. However, Israel has communicated the need for more time to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure, with discussions suggesting a possible 30-day extension to the deadline.
This period has seen significant provocations, including broadcasts from Hezbollah’s TV station, Al Manar, which seemingly encouraged people to return to the south, displaying the group’s flags prominently.
The failure to meet the ceasefire deadline represents a significant challenge for Lebanon’s new president and army chief, Joseph Aoun, who is under pressure to stabilize a nation beset by multiple crises. President Aoun has asserted that Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are paramount and is closely monitoring the situation.
The conflict, which escalated dramatically last September with an intensive Israeli air campaign and a ground invasion, has resulted in substantial casualties and displacement. Approximately 4,000 Lebanese, many civilians, were killed, and over 1.2 million were displaced.
Statements from the Israeli prime minister’s office emphasized that the withdrawal of forces is contingent upon effective deployment of the Lebanese army in the south and the complete withdrawal of Hezbollah from areas near the unofficial Lebanon-Israel border, known as the Blue Line.
The Lebanese army has expressed frustrations over delays in the deployment of its forces, attributing these to Israeli hesitations to withdraw, which complicates their mission. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has warned that non-compliance with the ceasefire terms constitutes a breach of the agreement and an infringement on Lebanese sovereignty, marking a new phase of occupation.
Despite the ceasefire, which was viewed by many as a capitulation by Hezbollah following severe losses in infrastructure, weapons, and personnel, the group faces a diminished role within Lebanon’s political landscape. Earlier this month, Lebanon’s parliament elected a president after a protracted deadlock, a development some attribute to Hezbollah’s reduced influence.
The situation remains tense, with potential repercussions not only for regional stability but also for the internal balance of power within Lebanon as it navigates recovery from economic collapse and political strife. The capacity and willingness of the Lebanese army to confront Hezbollah’s influence without triggering further violence is yet to be seen, as the nation grapples with the delicate task of disarmament and restoring sovereignty.