Reform UK Surges Ahead in Mega-Poll, Poised to Become Largest Party in Commons

LONDON, July 6, 2025 — A sweeping new mega-poll has sent shockwaves through Britain’s political landscape, projecting Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party to win 290 seats in the House of Commons—more than double that of any other party and placing it within striking distance of forming a government
Conducted by More In Common using advanced MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) modeling, the poll surveyed over 10,000 Britons and revealed a dramatic collapse in support for both Labour and the Conservatives. Labour is projected to secure just 126 seats, a staggering loss of 285 from its 2024 landslide, while the Conservatives would fall to 81 seats, their lowest tally in modern history.
📉 Political Upheaval and Voter Discontent
The poll attributes Labour’s decline to widespread dissatisfaction over broken promises, cost-of-living failures, and controversial changes to winter fuel payments. Reform UK is projected to flip 223 seats from Labour and 59 seats from the Conservatives, including many long-standing strongholds in the North of England and Wales.
More In Common’s UK Director Luke Tryl commented, “Britain’s political landscape has transformed entirely from just a year ago. Reform UK are demonstrating that they are now close to the level where they could command an outright majority.”
🗳️ Hung Parliament Likely, Majority Still Elusive
Despite Reform UK’s surge, the party would still fall short of the 325-seat threshold required for a majority government, suggesting a hung parliament scenario. Coalition possibilities remain uncertain, with traditional parties reeling from voter backlash and Farage’s party gaining momentum across the country.
As Prime Minister Keir Starmer marks one year in office, his personal approval rating has plummeted to -43, with many voters blaming him for internal party strife and welfare policy missteps.
With the next general election not due until 2029, the poll is not a forecast but a stark indicator of shifting public sentiment. Reform UK’s meteoric rise underscores a growing appetite for political disruption and a redefinition of Britain’s electoral norms.