June 13, 2026
Global oil markets could face a major price shock if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, energy analysts have warned, saying that the stockpile-based measures currently supporting supply may lose effectiveness by the end of the summer.
According to analysts at S&P Global Energy, the world has relied heavily on oil inventories to offset supply disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict affecting one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. However, they caution that those reserves cannot sustain the market indefinitely.
“There is a limit to how long inventories can compensate for lost supply,” said Aaron Brady, an analyst at S&P Global Energy. He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, oil stockpiles in the United States and other regions could fall close to minimum operating levels.
Markets have recently shown signs of relief after U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran was nearing completion. The comments helped ease concerns, with Brent crude trading at around $87.94 per barrel on Friday morning, its lowest level in three months.
Despite the temporary calm, analysts say the situation could worsen significantly if the disruption continues. Investment bank Macquarie estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the U.S. Labor Day period, Brent crude prices could rise to between $130 and $150 per barrel.
The firm also warned that if the conflict extends into 2027, maintaining the balance between global oil supply and demand could require prices to approach $200 per barrel.
Executives in the oil and gas sector told The Washington Post that some emergency stockpiles could be depleted within weeks. Once inventories fall below critical levels, markets would lose a key buffer against supply shocks, increasing the risk of sharp spikes in both crude oil and gasoline prices.
Analysts at Pickering Energy Partners echoed those concerns, saying U.S. oil inventories could approach minimum operating levels by the end of the summer.
Before the conflict began, global oil inventories had been increasing as production outpaced demand. That surplus, along with weaker Chinese imports, increased pipeline use by major producers such as Saudi Arabia, continued tanker movements, and the release of strategic reserves, has helped prevent oil prices from reaching the levels many analysts had feared.
However, U.S. commercial crude inventories have been declining rapidly. Government data show that stocks fell by more than seven million barrels in the week ending June 5, dropping to 426.5 million barrels.
At the same time, the Trump administration has continued releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while U.S. crude exports have increased to help offset supply shortages in global markets.
S&P Global estimates that key refining regions in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast currently hold about 351 million barrels of crude oil. Analysts consider 325 million barrels the danger threshold, below which supply disruptions and sudden price spikes become significantly more likely.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Analysts warn that if the waterway remains closed for an extended period, the safeguards currently stabilizing global oil markets could gradually weaken, paving the way for renewed volatility and sharply higher energy prices.
