A confidential nationwide survey conducted ahead of Bangladesh’s 13th parliamentary election suggests that the ruling Bangladesh Awami League (AL) could secure a single-party majority if all major political parties participate in the polls.
According to the survey, reportedly carried out by the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), the Awami League is projected to win 209 out of 300 parliamentary seats with 53% popular support. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is expected to secure 82 seats with 24% voter support.
Seat Projections and Vote Share
The survey indicates the following possible distribution of seats:
Bangladesh Awami League: 209 seats
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP): 82 seats
Jatiya Party: 5 seats
Jamaat-e-Islami and NCP alliance: 4 seats
In terms of vote share,
the Awami League is projected to receive 53%, followed by BNP with 24%. The Jamaat-e-Islami and NCP alliance could obtain 11%, Jatiya Party 7%, while 2% of voters favor other parties. Around 3% of respondents remain undecided.
Reasons Behind Rising Support for AL
The analytical section of the report attributes the Awami League’s increased popularity over the past 18 months to public demand for political stability and continued development. Many respondents reportedly believe that an experienced political force like the Awami League is necessary to restore stability and sustain economic progress.
The survey also reflects dissatisfaction with the interim government, particularly over the deterioration of law and order following the events of August 5, 2024. Respondents cited incidents of attacks, extortion, and market takeovers, with a significant portion attributing responsibility to BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami activists at the local level.
Public Concerns: Law and Order Top the List
When asked about the country’s most pressing issues, 35% of voters identified law and order as their primary concern. Rising commodity prices came second at 29%, followed by unemployment at 24%.
The survey highlights a lack of public confidence in key state institutions. About 58% of respondents said they have no confidence in the current government, administration, or Election Commission. Only 19% expressed satisfaction, while 8% described their trust level as moderate. Notably, 53% believe that an election held under the current Election Commission would not be acceptable.
Preference for Caretaker Government
On the question of issue-based referendums, 77% opposed the idea, while 14% supported it. Furthermore, 68% of respondents said they would prefer a national election under a reconstituted caretaker government rather than under the current administration and Election Commission.
Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted using a stratified multistage random sampling method across all 300 constituencies. A total of 720,000 voters were interviewed, with 2,400 respondents from each constituency. The reported margin of error is ±2% at a 95% confidence level.
The report concludes that while the findings provide a snapshot of current political sentiment, the final election outcome may be influenced by the campaign environment, candidate nominations, and alliance dynamics.
