In recent statements of Bangladeshi Interim Government, senior government officials — particularly the Prime Minister’s economic adviser — have repeatedly asserted that Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves have increased, the trade balance is improving, and exports are rising.
However, an analysis of real economic indicators suggests quite the opposite. Experts warn that presenting a partial or distorted economic picture may lead to an even greater financial crisis in the future.
1. Inflation and Monetary Policy
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), consumer prices rose by 9.73% in the first ten months of 2025. During the same period, Bangladesh Bank printed an additional 108 billion taka, resulting in an inflation rate of 8.29%. This spike in inflation has significantly increased the cost of living for ordinary citizens.
2. Trade and Industrial Sector
Imports have declined by $17 billion, down 5.58% from the previous year. Although exports appear to have increased, experts say this is largely due to delayed shipments from the previous year when the country faced political unrest in 2024.
New export orders for July–October 2025 have dropped by 5%, raising concerns of a further decline in export earnings for the 2025–26 fiscal year. Meanwhile, 353 factories have been shut down, leading to reduced production, increased unemployment, and a drop in revenue collection.
3. GDP and Revenue Trends
GDP growth has fallen to 4.9% — the lowest in 16 years, even below the pandemic level. The national budget for 2025–26 forecasts a deficit of 2.26 trillion taka, and revenue collection is projected to fall short by over 1.05 trillion taka.
4. Banking Sector and Financial Stability
Non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking sector reached 2.11 trillion taka in June 2024. Within a year, the figure tripled to 4.55 trillion taka. Experts attribute this sharp increase to political interference and poor governance. Recently, Bangladesh Bank injected 200 billion taka into banks with political ties, a move seen as a troubling sign of systemic weakness.
5. Reserves and Dollar Stability
While the government claims that reserves have increased and the dollar market has stabilized, economists argue that this stability is due to a steep drop in import demand. With imports falling, the need for dollars has decreased, artificially inflating the reserve figures — a sign of shrinking economic activity, not economic strength.
6. Rise in Money Laundering
Trade-based money laundering in 2024 amounted to $8.27 billion, while another $7.8 billion was siphoned out through informal channels like hundi. These outflows have exacerbated the foreign currency shortage.
7. Employment Crisis
In 2025 alone, 1.1 million workers lost their jobs. Overseas employment also fell by 27%, with 433,000 migrant workers returning home due to visa restrictions and falling demand abroad. Remittance inflows — a backbone of the economy — are expected to decline further.
8. International Support
Global development partners, including the IMF, have suspended or delayed loans and projects — a signal of eroding confidence in Bangladesh’s economic policies.
9. Government Finance
After announcing a new pay-scale for public servants, the government reversed its decision due to fiscal pressure. Reports suggest the government has liquid funds to cover expenses for only the next three months.
Overall Assessment
Nearly all sectors of the economy are slowing down or in distress. Experts caution that if the government continues to highlight only selected data — such as reserve figures or exchange rate stability — while ignoring fundamental declines in production, revenue, and employment, the public and policymakers could be misled.
Economists stress that the crisis is worsening due to inadequate policymaking, lack of transparency, and poor financial governance. They urge the government to acknowledge the economic reality and implement comprehensive reforms to prevent a deeper disaster.
