—◊ News Analysis ◊—
Bangladesh’s political crisis has entered a decisive phase, with mounting questions over whether elections promised for February 2026 can be credible without the participation of the Awami League (AL).
A widening campaign of bans, prosecutions, and administrative reshuffles under the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has narrowed political space and deepened concerns about legitimacy, rule of law, and public safety.
In parallel, exiled leader Sheikh Hasina has warned that excluding the AL — one of the country’s two dominant forces for decades — would amount to disenfranchising millions of voters, turning the polls into political theater rather than a democratic transition, according to interviews she gave from New Delhi attributed to Reuters.
From Uprising to Exclusion
The crisis traces back to August 2024, when Sheikh Hasina — who had led Bangladesh for 15 consecutive years — was ousted following student-led protests that turned violent amid alleged Islamist infiltration and military complicity.
On May 12, 2025, the interim government amended the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) to impose what it called a “temporary suspension” of Awami League activities, followed by the Election Commission’s decision to freeze the party’s registration. The revised law effectively banned all AL political meetings, publications, and digital communications — silencing a movement with millions of supporters.
Political analysts describe the move as a “legal coup” ensuring a one-sided contest in 2026.
“Bangladesh now faces the prospect of an election without competition,” one Dhaka University political scientist observed. “The process has become a performance — a vote without voters.”
Hasina, speaking from exile in New Delhi in her first comprehensive media interviews since her ouster, told Reuters, AFP and The Independent:
“The ban on the Awami League is not only unjust, it is self-defeating. Millions of people support the Awami League, so as things stand, they will not vote. You cannot disenfranchise millions of people if you want a political system that works.”
Her message — “millions cannot be disenfranchised” — has since become the defining refrain of opposition to the interim government.
A Widening Crackdown
Rights groups and civil-society organizations describe an atmosphere of relentless repression. In a 2025 report, Human Rights Watch (HRW) and domestic monitors estimated that more than 44,000 people had been arrested since August 2024 — the majority of them Awami League members or sympathizers. In Dhaka alone, 97 ATA cases filed between October 2024 and August 2025 led to over 1,100 arrests.
Teachers, journalists, and civil servants have faced forced resignations, professional blacklisting, and intimidation. Several senior academics were detained under the ATA for alleged “anti-state statements.” HRW warned that the law’s vague language allows “arbitrary detention of political opponents under the guise of national security.”
Freedom of expression has effectively collapsed. Journalists report pre-publication censorship, social-media surveillance, and arrests for online criticism of Yunus’s regime. Access to the Bangladesh Secretariat has been restricted to government-aligned outlets, with dozens of independent reporters stripped of accreditation.
Violence and Fear Across the Country
Meanwhile, targeted violence against Awami League supporters and religious minorities has surged since August 2024, deepening Bangladesh’s humanitarian crisis.
Independent human-rights documentation shows:
- Around 1,000 people — including AL activists, minorities, and police personnel — have been killed in political violence;
- More than 3,200 police officers were killed or wounded during the uprising and subsequent attacks on nearly 500 police stations;
- Following the regime change, thousands of homes and businesses owned by AL supporters were looted or burned;
- Roughly one million people have fled their neighborhoods fearing persecution.
Rights defenders say much of this violence occurs with “tacit state consent,” as security forces frequently remain passive during mob attacks.
From January to September 2025, Dhaka police recovered 492 unclaimed bodies — a 30 percent increase year-on-year. Hospital morgues reported 468 unidentified corpses buried over the same period, many showing signs of torture. River police across the country retrieved 301 bodies in 2025, several with bound limbs or weights tied to them. Forensic officers described the killings as “systematic, not spontaneous.”
Law and Order in Decline
Police records indicate that 2,616 murder cases were registered nationwide between January and August 2025 — a 14 percent rise from the previous year. August alone saw 38 mob lynchings claiming 23 lives. Criminologists warn that the state is “losing its monopoly on justice.”
Dr. Umar Faruq, a criminologist at Dhaka University, explained:
“The rise in unclaimed bodies means the justice system itself is decaying. When perpetrators know no one will investigate, impunity becomes the norm.”
Justice in Question
Hasina faces ongoing proceedings in absentia at the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) over alleged human-rights abuses during the 2024 unrest. She has dismissed the charges as “politically motivated” and “a predetermined charade.” Legal experts, including retired judges, question the ICT’s independence, citing selective access to evidence, compressed timelines, and shifting judicial standards.
The tribunal’s legitimacy came under further scrutiny after the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) issued a February 2025 report accusing the Hasina government of excessive force during the protests. Canada’s Global Center for Democratic Governance (GCDG) later criticized the UN findings as “methodologically biased,” arguing they exaggerated casualties under Hasina while overlooking post-Yunus atrocities, minority persecution, and targeted killings of Awami League members.
Nevertheless, the UN report has been cited by Bangladesh’s interim courts as a “historic document” — a move critics say institutionalizes bias and damages judicial neutrality.
Economic Slowdown and Diplomatic Strain
The political crisis has not only eroded rights but also rattled Bangladesh’s economic foundations.
Economists estimate GDP growth has fallen from 6.8 percent to around 3.3 percent under the interim regime. At least 268 factories have closed, foreign investment has dropped by 21 percent, and foreign-exchange reserves have declined for four consecutive months.
An estimated 39 million Bangladeshis now face daily food insecurity, while power shortages and bureaucratic paralysis cripple industrial output. The garment sector — the backbone of the national economy — reports widespread layoffs among women workers.
Diplomatically, relations with India and the United States have cooled. Both Washington and New Delhi have urged “inclusive and credible elections,” but Yunus’s growing proximity to Islamist factions and restrictions on press freedom have strained ties. Regional analysts warn that the regime’s tilt toward Pakistan and reliance on clerical networks could further isolate Dhaka internationally.
A Message From Exile
From her temporary residence in New Delhi, Sheikh Hasina insists her struggle is not personal but constitutional.
“For Bangladesh to achieve the future we all want, there must be a return to constitutional rule and political stability. No single person or family defines our country’s future,” she told reporters.
Hasina said she will not return to Bangladesh “under any government formed without the participation of my party.”
She denies ordering lethal force during the 2024 unrest, saying operational decisions were made in the field under standard police protocols.
“As a leader, I take responsibility for the government’s actions,” she said. “But the claim that I ordered the use of live ammunition is false. The charges rely on manipulated evidence.”
The Path Forward
Political experts outline four urgent steps to restore public confidence before February 2026:
1️⃣ Reinstate fundamental political rights and end bans on opposition activity;
2️⃣ Restore the Awami League’s registration to ensure meaningful participation;
3️⃣ Lift restrictions on assembly, press, and association to permit open campaigning;
4️⃣ End retaliatory prosecutions and ensure transparent, evidence-based trials.
Without these measures, analysts warn, the election will be “a procedural event with predetermined outcomes — a performance of democracy without its essence.”
A Nation at a Crossroads
Whether one supports or opposes the Awami League, the principle behind Hasina’s warning remains unambiguous: legitimacy flows from inclusion.
An election that excludes the country’s largest party — and by extension, millions of citizens — cannot yield a government of consensus or credibility. For a nation founded on the principle of people’s sovereignty, the defining question is no longer the date of the election but its authenticity.
As Hasina reminded the world from exile:
“Democracy survives only when people can vote. To disenfranchise millions is to destroy the foundation of the state itself.”
Writer: Dastagir Jahangir, Editor of The Voice
