Bangladesh’s coming election risks devolving into political theater if the Awami League remains barred, according to comments from Sheikh Hasina that have re-centered the debate over legitimacy, participation and rule of law. In a rare set of interviews from exile in New Delhi, Hasina told Reuters that excluding her party—one of the country’s two dominant political forces for decades—would amount to “mass disenfranchisement,” and she vowed not to return under any government formed without Awami League participation.
Hasina, 78, called the ban on her party “unjust” and “self-defeating,” framing the stakes in institutional rather than personal terms. Bangladesh has more than 126 million registered voters; removing a party that commands support in the tens of millions risks producing a government that struggles for recognition at home and abroad, she argued, adding that “millions will not vote” if the Awami League is blocked, Reuters reported.
The Election Commission suspended the Awami League’s registration in May after the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus curtailed party activity nationwide. Critics say those curbs, combined with prosecutions of senior figures and extensive reshuffles across the civil service and police, have erased the political space necessary for an election that meets even minimal standards of inclusivity. Rights advocates and diplomats have urged Dhaka to ensure a contest in which major stakeholders can participate without fear or favor.
A legitimacy test, not just a polling date
The Yunus administration has pledged elections in February 2026. But with the Awami League sidelined, independent jurists, diplomats and business leaders warn that turnout, market stability and public order could all be at risk. The country’s recent trajectory—marked by mass detentions under security laws, allegations of custodial abuse and a widening crackdown on dissent—has intensified those concerns, according to local and international monitoring groups.
Supporters of Yunus argue that the restrictions are necessary to protect order in the wake of last year’s deadly unrest. Hasina counters that operational decisions during the 2024 protests were made on the ground by security forces under established rules, denies ordering lethal force, and labels the cases against her a politically driven “charade.” She says an inquiry launched under her government into early protest deaths was halted by the interim authorities.
A shrinking political arena
Accounts from the legal community and human-rights organizations describe a climate in which opposition supporters, journalists and academics face politically motivated charges, dismissals and travel restrictions. Activists have documented attacks on homes and businesses of Awami League sympathizers, often in the presence of security personnel, as well as constraints on media access to government facilities. These developments have narrowed the space for peaceful politics and complicated efforts to verify claims from either side.
Analysts say the cumulative effect is a one-sided race: an election timetable without a credible pathway back onto the ballot for the country’s largest party. The interim government, initially expected to maintain neutrality, is now seen by many domestic observers as exhibiting overt bias—jailing Awami League leaders and clearing the field in ways that risk turning the vote into a farcical exercise.
Violence, law and order, and the human toll
Beyond the capital, indicators of law-and-order stress have multiplied. Coroners and charities report a surge in unidentified bodies and river recoveries across 2025, trends criminologists link to a broader breakdown of deterrence and investigative capacity. Police data show homicides and mob violence rising, while political clashes grow more lethal. Civil society groups say selective enforcement has blurred lines between public safety and political score-settling, leaving families of victims—across communities—without recourse.
Economy and external relations
Bangladesh’s economy, long praised for export-led growth and poverty reduction, has encountered headwinds amid political uncertainty, power shortages and investor caution. Manufacturers cite delays, financing constraints and reputational risk; financial analysts warn that prolonged polarization could weigh on credit conditions and external balances. Foreign partners have urged Dhaka to restore predictability and uphold commitments to transparent, rules-based governance—signals that often track perceptions of electoral credibility.
What Hasina’s stance signals
Hasina’s interviews also sought to de-personalize the Awami League’s claim, stressing that “no single person or family defines the country’s future.” Yet her bottom line was unmistakable: a ballot that excludes millions of willing voters’ first choice is unlikely to command consent. From a constitutional perspective, the message is that participation is not a privilege bestowed by the executive but an essential attribute of sovereignty exercised by citizens.
What could restore confidence
Election specialists and former election officials point to a narrow set of measures that could lower the temperature and rebuild trust: reinstating basic political rights; restoring the Awami League’s registration; lifting restrictions on peaceful assembly, media and association; and ending prosecutions perceived as retaliatory. Without such steps, the February poll risks being seen as a procedural event rather than a democratic transition—a vote that settles little and polarizes further.
Hasina’s “millions cannot be disenfranchised” message has therefore become a litmus test. Whether one supports or opposes the Awami League, the principle cuts through the noise: legitimacy flows from inclusion. A process that sidelines the country’s largest party—and, by extension, a vast share of its electorate—invites precisely the crisis of authority that an election is meant to resolve.
