Donald Trump has again threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on Hollywood films produced abroad, vowing a “100%” duty on any movie “made” outside the United States. The renewed rhetoric, delivered just days before a looming government shutdown deadline, has sparked confusion and anxiety across the entertainment industry.
Trump’s tariff warning
On Monday, the President posted on his Truth Social platform that “our movie making business has been stolen from the United States of America, by other Countries.” He said his administration would impose a blanket tariff on films made overseas, while also taking aim at California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has pushed to expand state tax credits for productions.
This is not the first time Trump has floated such an idea. In May, he startled Hollywood by announcing that all foreign-made movies could face tariffs. That proposal, tied to his broader trade agenda, was widely seen as unworkable given the complexity of global filmmaking, which often involves multiple countries sharing production, financing, and post-production responsibilities.
Hollywood backstory
The President’s original comments were reportedly influenced by a May 5 meeting at Mar-a-Lago with actor Jon Voight and producer Steven Paul, who presented a plan to boost U.S. film production. Their proposal included tax incentives, infrastructure subsidies for theaters and production companies, co-production treaties, and limited tariffs. Notably, the only mention of tariffs in their document was a brief reference to “certain limited circumstances.”
Industry analysts point out that Trump’s expansive definition of films “made” abroad is ambiguous. Would tariffs apply to location shoots, post-production, or even digital effects done overseas? In today’s global industry, nearly every feature film involves international labor and financing.
Tax credits versus tariffs
The debate over tariffs has increasingly shifted toward discussions of federal tax credits to keep film production in the U.S. Congresswoman Laura Friedman, who represents Burbank—the heart of the studio system—dismissed the tariff idea while supporting incentives. “I’m relieved President Trump recognizes that we are losing a signature American product: the domestic film & TV industry. However, his 100% tariff on foreign films will raise costs for consumers,” she said.
Senator Adam Schiff echoed her view, calling for bipartisan support to pass a federal film tax credit. Industry veterans note that tax incentives, not tariffs, have long shaped global competition for film production. U.S. states like New York, New Jersey, Georgia, and New Mexico aggressively court projects with subsidies, while countries such as the U.K., Canada, and Australia remain formidable competitors.
California itself has struggled to retain productions, prompting Newsom to double the state’s annual credit program from $330 million to $750 million. Yet, Los Angeles continues to see declining shoot days as studios cut projects and reduce series orders.
Industry economics
Despite federal inaction, the global production race remains fierce. According to ProdPro, U.S. film and TV spending hit $7.2 billion across 216 projects in the first half of 2025, down 27 percent from the same period in 2024. The U.K. followed with $4 billion on 118 projects, Canada with $2.3 billion on 91 projects, and Australia with $1.1 billion on 30 projects. Nearly all major markets saw declines, reflecting a wider industry contraction.
Hollywood insiders say the U.S. remains competitive but warn that tariffs could backfire, raising consumer costs and straining international co-productions. “Films are global products with thousands of workers across borders,” one executive said. “You can’t tariff your way into rebuilding Hollywood.”
Politics overshadow policy
The timing of Trump’s remarks underscores the tenuous place of film policy in Washington’s priorities. With the government facing a shutdown if Congress fails to pass a funding bill this week, lawmakers are more preoccupied with averting crisis than reforming entertainment policy.
Still, advocates say the President’s remarks have at least shined a spotlight on an industry under strain. Steven Paul, Trump’s Hollywood intermediary, framed the focus as positive: “[Trump] loves the entertainment business, and it’s not a Democrat or Republican business.” Paul himself has invested in California studios and is currently producing The Last Firefighter, starring Voight and Kelsey Grammer, despite higher costs of shooting in the state.
Whether Trump follows through on his threat or shifts toward incentives, Hollywood finds itself caught in a broader political battle over trade, economics, and culture—one that could reshape how and where the world’s biggest movies are made.
