ISLAMABAD, Aug. 17, 2025 — Four years after the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, Pakistan is grappling with an escalating wave of militant violence, deteriorating relations with its western neighbor, and growing concerns over cross-border insurgencies that threaten regional stability, DW reports.
Militants emboldened
The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 reverberated beyond Kabul, with Pakistan among the hardest hit. Experts say the victory emboldened groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and Baloch separatists — all of whom have stepped up attacks on Pakistani soil.
“Militant factions have seized upon shifting dynamics to intensify insurgencies against the Pakistani state,” said Safdar Sial of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies. He noted that TTP and ISKP have escalated attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, while the Baloch Liberation Army has targeted Pakistani forces and Chinese workers linked to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Deadly resurgence
Until recently, Pakistan had succeeded in curbing militancy through military campaigns like Operation Zarb-e-Azb and U.S. drone strikes that killed senior TTP leaders. Fatalities from terror attacks fell sharply, from over 2,400 in 2013 to just 220 in 2020.
But after U.S.–Taliban peace talks began in 2020, splintered TTP groups began to reunite, attracting al-Qaida affiliates. A July 2025 UN report warned that the TTP now enjoys “logistical and operational support” from Taliban authorities in Kabul.
Strained ties with Kabul
Islamabad initially welcomed the Taliban’s return, expecting a cooperative neighbor. Instead, the Taliban’s reluctance to act against the TTP has fueled unprecedented strains. Pakistani forces have carried out cross-border airstrikes on suspected TTP hideouts, while Islamabad has expelled over a million Afghan refugees since late 2023.
“Cracking down on the TTP risks fracturing the Taliban’s own ranks, or pushing some fighters toward ISKP,” warned Kabul-based researcher Hazrat Ali.
Diplomatic impasse
Despite recent high-level visits by Pakistani ministers and some tariff reductions to ease Afghan trade, analysts caution that relations cannot stabilize until the TTP issue is resolved. “Unless the TTP threat is contained, meaningful improvement will remain elusive,” said Islamabad analyst Tahir Khan.
Unlike 1996, when Pakistan quickly recognized the Taliban regime, Islamabad has withheld formal recognition this time. Russia remains the only state to recognize the Taliban government, highlighting Islamabad’s cautious approach.
Regional stakes
The TTP insurgency compounds Pakistan’s internal challenges, already marked by economic crisis and political instability. Experts warn that without coordinated regional pressure on the Taliban to sever links with militant groups, Pakistan risks sliding into a prolonged cycle of violence.
