The already fragile prospects for Rohingya repatriation have been further threatened by rising tensions and violent clashes involving armed groups. The International Crisis Group (ICG) has issued a warning that growing frustration among Rohingya refugees could lead to armed rebellion, complicating any hopes of a peaceful return to Myanmar.In its latest report, the ICG highlights increasing violence and criminal activities in Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar, where armed groups such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) are vying for control. This competition has resulted in a spike in abductions, internal conflicts, and fear among camp residents. The report suggests that the mounting despair could drive some Rohingya to join militant movements.Meanwhile, fresh conflict between ARSA and the Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar’s Rakhine State has intensified the crisis. Fierce clashes have reportedly erupted in northern Maungdaw Township. Though unverified, ARSA claimed on social media that over 50 Arakan Army fighters were killed in recent battles. Sources suggest ARSA utilized Hungarian-made FEG AMD-65 rifles and rocket-propelled grenades during the assault.The conflict adds a new and dangerous layer to the repatriation efforts. While discussions between Bangladesh and the Arakan Army had previously hinted at possible pathways for repatriation, the AA’s expanding control—now said to encompass 15 out of 17 townships in Rakhine—has raised serious doubts about the safety and feasibility of returning Rohingya refugees.Further complicating the matter are recent diplomatic tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar’s military government. Following Dhaka’s outreach to the Arakan Army, the Myanmar junta recalled two senior embassy officials in protest.In light of these developments, the ICG has recommended that Bangladesh prioritize dismantling armed networks within the camps and enhance dialogue with the Arakan Army. The ICG also urged the AA to adopt more inclusive governance policies and open channels for constructive negotiation with Rohingya representatives.Rohingya community leader Mohammad Amin expressed deep concern: “We want to return to our homeland peacefully, but ongoing conflict and distrust make that nearly impossible.” He called upon the international community to put pressure on Myanmar to guarantee Rohingya citizenship and ensure their safety.Experts emphasize that without coordinated international action, the situation could spiral further into chaos. The entrenchment of armed factions and continued hostilities in Rakhine threaten not just repatriation, but long-term regional stability.
