As Iranian officials met Russian counterparts in Moscow this week for a conference on “Russian-Iranian cooperation in a changing world”, the event took on unexpected urgency. Tehran’s regime, a key ally of Moscow, is now facing its gravest threat in decades amid Israel’s military offensive and U.S. demands for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”.While Russia has strengthened its strategic ties with Iran since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it is not willing to intervene militarily to defend Tehran. Experts note the Kremlin is prioritizing the war in Ukraine and avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. or Israel.“Moscow won’t fight for Iran,” said analyst Nikita Smagin. A Russian foreign ministry source added that the Kremlin is urging diplomacy but remains focused on maintaining improving relations with the Trump administration to prevent a policy shift on Ukraine.Despite the lack of military support, a regime collapse in Tehran would severely damage Russia’s regional influence. “It would be a bigger loss than Syria,” the source noted, referring to the fall of Damascus and the waning Russian influence there.Russia’s muted response contrasts with its deepening ties with Iran since 2022, when Tehran supplied Moscow with thousands of combat drones used in Ukraine. Iran even helped Russia build a domestic drone production facility. In return, the countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in January 2025—but one that pointedly lacked a mutual defense clause.Iran has repeatedly requested Russian weapons, such as air defenses and fighter jets, but Moscow has not delivered. Analysts suggest Russia is reluctant to entangle itself further due to its commitments in Ukraine and warming relations with other regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia.While some in Moscow are spinning the Iran-Israel conflict as an opportunity—rising oil prices have helped Russia’s wartime economy, and Trump is now focused on the Middle East, sidelining Ukraine—the long-term risks remain serious. Russia has invested billions in Iran’s infrastructure and energy sectors, and the collapse of the regime could jeopardize those assets.Unlike with Belarus, Russia lacks deep historical or cultural ties with Iran. Their alliance is built on shared opposition to the West and survival under sanctions. If Iran’s government falls, so could Russia’s influence in the region.“If this regime collapses, Russia could lose a key foothold in the Middle East,” said Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign policy. “The region could become dominated by U.S.-aligned powers—an outcome Moscow dreads.”
