SYDNEY – The 2024 rankings have been released, measuring the capacity of countries to deter real or potential external threats to state stability. The rankings consider various factors, including internal stability, resource security, geoeconomic security, geopolitical security, and nuclear deterrence. The United States leads the list, followed by China and Russia.
Top Countries in 2024: Capacity to Deter External Threats
- United States: 85.0
- China: 70.6 (up 1 position)
- Russia: 68.9 (down 1 position)
- India: 56.5
- Australia: 41.6
- New Zealand: 39.4
- Japan: 35.6 (up 4 positions)
- South Korea: 34.8 (up 2 positions)
- North Korea: 34.6
- Malaysia: 32.4 (down 2 positions)
Categories Assessed
- Internal Stability:
- Assesses institutional and environmental factors that enhance domestic governance and protect from external interference. Indicators include government effectiveness, political stability, major ecological threats, and absence of internal conflict.
- Resource Security:
- Examines secure access to energy and other critical resources essential for a country’s economy. Factors include dependency on energy imports, energy self-sufficiency, refined fuel security, and supply of rare-earth metals.
- Geoeconomic Security:
- Measures the ability to defend against economic actions by other states affecting geopolitical interests and economic activity. This includes the diversity of export markets and products, and dependency on primary trade partners and global trade.
- Geopolitical Security:
- Evaluates structural and political factors that minimize the risk of interstate conflict and enhance territorial security. Indicators include population size relative to neighbors, geographic deterrence based on landmass, active border disputes, and legacies of interstate conflicts.
- Nuclear Deterrence:
- Assesses strategic, theatre, and tactical nuclear forces capable of deterring potential aggressors through retaliatory nuclear strikes. This includes nuclear weapons range, ground-based nuclear missile launchers, and nuclear second-strike capabilities.
These scores reflect the dynamic and multifaceted nature of power and stability among nations, highlighting their ability to maintain security and deter external threats. For a more detailed analysis, you can access the full report on the Lowy Institute’s website.