Russia is losing an average of around 36,000 troops each month in the war in Ukraine while recruiting approximately 30,000 to 31,000 new personnel, leaving a monthly shortfall of about 6,000 troops, according to Western officials cited by The Guardian.
One Western official told the British newspaper that Russian forces are currently recruiting roughly 1,000 troops a day. However, losses across various fronts are significantly higher, creating an increasingly difficult manpower situation for the Russian military.
The official said the continuing troop shortage is causing growing concern within the Russian military and is also making President Vladimir Putin increasingly anxious. According to the official, Moscow has responded by intensifying attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Since the beginning of July, Russia has launched more than 360 missiles at targets in Ukraine, the official said, adding that Moscow has sought to exploit weaknesses in Kyiv’s defenses against ballistic missiles.
Western officials believe Russia may seek to severely damage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the coming winter in an attempt to undermine public morale. They also argue that one reason behind the strategy is that Putin has limited options for recruiting additional troops to compensate for heavy battlefield losses.
A large-scale mobilization could carry significant political and economic risks for the Kremlin, according to the officials. During Russia’s last major mobilization in autumn 2022, nearly one million Russian citizens reportedly left the country, many of them highly skilled workers. Although some later returned, the number of returnees was reportedly less than half the number who initially departed.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued targeting Russian oil and energy-related facilities, contributing to pressure on Russia’s fuel sector. Kyiv has also repeatedly appealed to its Western allies for additional assistance, including both offensive weapons and air-defense systems.
During his first overseas trip as prime minister, Andy Burnham visited Kyiv this week and reportedly promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the United Kingdom would support Ukraine in developing long-range cruise missiles.
Burnham is also expected to make the case at the United Nations General Assembly in New York next month for continued international support to protect Ukraine from Russian attacks.
Russia, meanwhile, has repeatedly threatened retaliatory strikes, including against British military targets both inside and outside Ukraine.
Western officials acknowledge that Moscow’s threats should be taken seriously but said their assessment remains that Putin wants to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022 on Putin’s orders, following years of tensions over issues including Crimea, the implementation of the 2015 Minsk agreements and Ukraine’s aspirations to join the US-led NATO military alliance. The war remains ongoing.
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