BAGHDAD — The United States is set to complete the withdrawal of its remaining military forces and bases from Iraq by Wednesday, bringing an end to more than two decades of American military involvement in the country.
More than 4,500 US service members were killed during the long conflict, which began with the US-led invasion in 2003 to topple Saddam Hussein.
The withdrawal agreement was signed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and is now being implemented by the administration of President Donald Trump. The move comes as Washington is simultaneously engaged in a military conflict with Iran.
Iraqi security analysts say the departure could strengthen Iran and its allied armed groups, while raising concerns about a potential security vacuum that could also provide an opportunity for Islamic State (IS) militants to rebuild.
Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specialising in Iran-backed armed groups, said Iran would benefit strategically from the withdrawal because it ends a military presence that had for years served as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq.
He said Iran-aligned proxy groups could portray the US withdrawal as a symbol of their victory and seek to expand their influence over security and political decision-making in the country.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander of the Iran-backed umbrella group Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the US departure as a “historic victory.”
He said September 30 would mark the end of what he called a “dark chapter” in Iraq’s history and the failure of attempts to impose occupation on the country.
However, concerns about the consequences of the withdrawal remain widespread.
Abdul Rahman al-Jubai, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah, said Iraqis wanted full sovereignty but questioned whether Iraqi security forces were fully prepared to manage the country’s security situation without the US-led coalition.
“We believe Iraq is not yet fully prepared to deal with the security situation at this moment,” he said, warning that the coalition’s departure could create a security vacuum.
From invasion to counter-IS campaign
US forces invaded Iraq in 2003 and eventually withdrew at the end of 2011. They returned less than three years later as part of an international campaign to help Iraqi forces defeat IS, which had seized large areas of Iraq and Syria.
The US-led campaign against IS continued from 2014 to 2017, with American forces providing air support, intelligence, training and other assistance to Iraqi forces.
The scale of American military losses in Iraq’s “Operation Iraqi Freedom” was nearly twice that suffered during the US military campaign in Afghanistan before the 2021 withdrawal.
In recent years, Iraq has maintained close political and military ties with both Washington and Tehran, making it one of the few countries positioned between the two rival powers.
Washington has accused Iran-backed militias of attacks on US bases and of involvement in attacks on regional infrastructure, including a Saudi oil pipeline. Iran-backed groups have denied or disputed various accusations.
Fears of an Islamic State comeback
The US withdrawal has also raised concerns about the possible resurgence of IS sleeper cells.
Security officials from Iraq’s federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have warned that militant activity could increase as the international coalition reduces its presence.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said signs of increased activity by IS sleeper cells had been detected since the international coalition announced its formal withdrawal plans in September.
Iraqi security officials have also reported that a suspected IS cell was preparing suicide attacks in connection with the US military departure.
The withdrawal therefore marks a major change in Iraq’s post-2003 security landscape, as Baghdad assumes greater responsibility for maintaining security while balancing its relationships with Washington, Tehran and various armed groups operating inside the country.
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