New York City is bracing for a significant drop in tourism this year, largely due to new tariffs and immigration policies introduced by President Donald Trump.
According to a report released Thursday by NYC Tourism + Conventions, the city now expects 64.1 million visitors in 2025—a decline of 3.5 million from the 67.6 million predicted just five months ago. The biggest impact is expected among international tourists, whose numbers are projected to fall to 12.1 million, a 17% drop from the earlier forecast and 6% lower than 2024’s total.
Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, which helped develop the forecast, attributed the decline to “tariffs and their effects on prices and disposable income,” along with restrictive immigration measures.
The nationwide trend supports the local outlook. International travel to the U.S. fell 2.4% in February and 11.6% in March year-over-year, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office. Airlines are also feeling the impact—Air Canada reported a notable decline in U.S.-bound bookings and a 4.6% drop in passenger revenue on those routes in early 2025.
In New York, the decline in tourism is already affecting the hospitality sector. Though hotel occupancy in March and April remained steady at 85%, new hotel development has slowed amid economic uncertainty fueled by the tariffs.
Even major attractions like the Empire State Building have not been spared. Empire State Realty Trust reported a drop in observatory income, falling to $15 million in Q1 2025 from $28.5 million in the previous quarter. While the company cited bad weather and a shifted Easter holiday as contributing factors, it also acknowledged concerns about political uncertainty affecting demand.
As the situation unfolds, city officials and tourism leaders are closely monitoring the economic ripple effects of national policy decisions on New York’s vital tourism industry.
