Iran Adapts to Sustain Oil Exports Amid Conflict, Say Trackers

Despite rising geopolitical tensions and threats of military confrontation in the Gulf region, Iran has successfully maintained its oil exports by adopting new tactics, according to shipping and energy analysts.Oil tracking data shows Iran has recently loaded tankers one at a time at Kharg Island’s eastern jetty—its primary crude export terminal. This controlled method reduces exposure and helps manage risks of targeted strikes. At the same time, Iran has redeployed much of its “shadow fleet”—a group of tankers operating under obscured identities—closer to Asia, particularly China.These vessels often disable tracking systems and use deceptive flags to evade U.S. sanctions. Analysts say nearly 8 million barrels are now on the move aboard such tankers, ensuring a steady flow of Iranian crude into the global market.Iran’s oil exports have held firm, reaching a five-week high of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in loadings, while average exports remain around 1.7 million bpd in 2025.Meanwhile, global shipping costs have surged. Daily rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) transporting oil from the Middle East to China have more than doubled, jumping from $20,000 to nearly $48,000 amid fears of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz.While Iran has hinted it could shut down the critical waterway, no actual disruptions have occurred yet. Roughly 21 million bpd of crude oil still flows through the strait each day, keeping global supplies relatively stable.Energy analysts caution, however, that any real disruption—such as a missile strike on Kharg Island or closure of the Strait—could send oil prices soaring past $100 per barrel.